Aaron Birch
DTC 338 Social Media
Michael Rabby Ph.D
Fall 2016
#SuperMarioRun
Nintendo’s Latest Attempt at Mobile Gaming
For this case study, I’ll be exploring the wildly popular and famous brand of Nintendo. I’ve been a Nintendo loyalist my whole life. As a child, Nintendo helped me develop the animated personality that I have/am today. This seemed like an excellent topic, not only for the sake of improving my knowledge of Social Media Marketing, but also to heighten my experiences with the Nintendo Brand as a whole.
Before starting any deep analysis, I first conducted a SWOT chart (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats), to help guide the trajectory for how I would approach Super Mario Run. In my perspective, having more potential weaknesses and threats seemed to lean towards a bad outcome, rather than a favorable one.
On September 7th of 2016, the Father of Mario, Shigeru Miyamoto stepped out onto the stage of the Apple Keynote Seminar to talk about Mario’s next adventure on the iOS, and other apple products. While this excited many, I chose to be skeptical, despite my allegiance to Nintendo. Super Mario Run is to be the latest (and incredibly ubiquitous) endless-runner games.
The prevalence of front-running video game genre(s)/franchise(s) coming to the mobile world has been a rocky situation. Those familiar with this current gaming climate may think of the recent coming out of Niantic’s Pokemon GO. The angle for this Case Study is more of an informed prophecy— by monitoring various social media outlets and channels, and conducting a deep analysis of other aspects regarding Nintendo’s brand activity, I’ll be able to make the prediction that Nintendo’s Super Mario Run will fail (To which I have supporting points).
- Potential Brand Damage
- Failure of Proper Exposure
- Not Learning from Others’ Mistakes
- Poor Social Media Presence
**Before I begin, I must first define the parameters of my usage of ‘fail.’ To simply guess, and imagine that no one will play the game is rather silly. People will most likely play this game by the millions! But for how long will they play? Will they invest in the popular mobile-gaming micro transactions? In terms of social media, will it go ‘viral?’ Is Nintendo trying to increase their audience’s awareness of the brand? Attract a newer and younger audience? These are questions that this game raises for me.**
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1. Potential Brand Damage
Mario’s transition to the small screen has been met with skepticism from his creators at Nintendo, as well as his dedicated audiences. Even though Mario has been successful on Nintendo’s own mobile 3DS system, it’s the jump to smartphones that has many concerned. When a company makes a vast change regarding their brand’s primary platforms, it can be a bit of a gamble. Prior to the Apple Keynote Seminar, Nintendo had been vehemently against smartphone gaming with Nintendo characters and branding. Gaming and Digital Technology blog Engadget reports on this situation.
For years, Satoru Iwata [Nintendo’s ex 4th President, as he recently passed away from a bile duct growth] rallied hard against bringing Nintendo characters to the small screen. “If we did this,” he said in 2011, “Nintendo would cease to be Nintendo.” The company’s leader was adamant: Putting Mario on mobile would make good short-term profits but would ultimately devalue the property. Now that it’s here, we have to wonder — is Nintendo still Nintendo? (Engadget, Sept 7th.)
What makes this unease is that those familiar with Nintendo are fully aware of Nintendo’s influence and level of ingenuity when it comes to creating new things. People may heckle Nintendo for the Wii and the WiiU consoles, but if you’ve noticed, Nintendo is often the pioneering force for new ways of gaming. Nintendo will take a chance and go for the dare, to create something new, amazing and spectacular– 6 months later, Xbox or PlayStation will magically have something similar. That level of multifaceted success within the console wars is truly at Nintendo’s behest. Be that as it may, a gamble is still a gamble. If Mario is unable to seamlessly hit the smaller-screens, it will ultimately damage the brand on the whole.
At the heart of this transition, Nintendo is letting down their barrier, and practically letting their star-ship baby (Mario), make his way into the iOS market. If Super Mario Run is well met with the masses, it bodes well for both Nintendo and Apple. This dynamic also works inversely, as if Super Mario Run fails? Not only will it harm Nintendo and Apple’s temporary business partnership, but it will also cheapen both brands’ integrity.
“If you build it, they will come.” -Field of Dreams
This classic baseball film line may not be relevant to Mario exactly, but it’s sure safe to say that people will play Super Mario Run, even if only a little while. It’s the longevity in mobile gaming (or lack thereof) that could break this new entity. As of October 14th, Super Mario Run has already received 20 million pre-registration signups for the game. (TouchArcade iOS Blog )
While that is a rather large margin, it doesn’t mean anything if the game fails to make an impact. If millions of people were to go to a concert, get bored, and then leave? No one would care. The quantity of people is not correlated to the quality of the game.
Nintendo needs to do well. While the Wii and WiiU were fun and brought in some decent revenue, it has not been enough to stop Nintendo’s recent and steady downfall. As Nintendo delves farther into obscurity, their chances of digging themselves out of this rut will get more difficult by the year– especially as digital and video game technologies continue to pass Nintendo by. Perhaps this is the opportunity they need? Perhaps this will be their doom.
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2. Failure of Proper Exposure
In the US alone, roughly 43% of smartphone users are on iOS.
Apple products are the exclusive platform for Super Mario Run… that means less than half of the market will have access to this game. Not only is that inefficient, but such an uninformed decision exemplifies some thoughtlessness. To cut half of the audience out is incredibly naïve and foolish. While it makes sense to have Apple products be the primary platform, since it was Apple that teamed up with Nintendo, I just cannot see a viable justification. That sense of elitism in the smartphone wars may be justified for the business leaders, but it will only punish the audiences who are not on apple products.
Top Mobile Trends reports on the statistics.
“A Tale as old as smartphones- Apple vs Android?”
According to ComScore, [American global media measurement and analytics] smartphones make up almost 77% of the mobile market in the United States with more than 190 million people owning a smartphone. When looking at the amount of Apple vs Android users, people may just look at their own circle of friends and make an assumption. So while you may see more Apple devices than Androids within your circle of friends that may not represent the United States as a whole. ComScore recorded smartphone statistics and found that in the United States Android users rule.
United States Smartphone Operating System Rankings
1) Androids 51.6%
2) iOS 42.6%
3) Windows 3.3%
4) BlackBerry 1.6%
5) Symbian 0.1%
Something important to note, is that these stats are only for the US. The statistics for the Global smart phone market are even worse for Super Mario Run’s future.
1) Android 80.7%
2) iOS 15.4% ——–> Only 15% of the world will be able to play? That’s pathetic.
3) Windows 2.8%
4) BlackBerry 0.6%
– Other OS 0.5%
If Super Mario Run is going to be released on a global scale, both Nintendo and Apple may be not be a strong enough force to face such weighted scales.
Another example of poor exposure would be the aspect of platform. Cross-platform-ability has been a raving topic for gamers, as it’s been common that a video game studio will release a game on multiple systems (Xbox, PlayStation, etc). Nintendo however has been resilient on their stances, for Nintendo’s games have only ever been authentically released on their respective consoles. This may have been smart for the console wars, but the smartphone wars have a completely different dynamic. What makes things even more complicated is that Super Mario Run was built using the highly popular Unity gaming engine. Unity is hailed for its practicality and wide level of open-source game programming abilities. To use an engine that boasts open-sourcing, then to only release it on one elite platform? Seems very counter-intuitive to me, as well as to Unity’s ideals. Super Mario Run – Unity
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3. Not Learning from Others’ Mistakes
Nintendo is usually pretty smart about owning up to their mistakes… but it’s another company’s mistake that Nintendo needs to take a lesson from. Niantic’s Pokemon Go is seen to be a success, (despite its confusion of having Nintendo’s licensing… Nintendo did not actually produce Pokemon Go) yet the numbers don’t lie– Pokemon Go lost millions of users in less than one month! What’s to say that Mario’s next adventure won’t be any different? If anything, Pokemon Go is a perfect example for the team of developers at Nintendo to learn from. GameRant (gaming blog) ran some fascinating stats on the sheer drop in Pokemon Go activity.
“But like all good things, the boom Pokemon GO first experienced couldn’t last forever. According to information provided by Axiom Capital Management and published by Bloomberg, the popular augmented reality mobile game that was once the most popular free game on mobile has already lost more than 15 million daily users“.
Pokemon Go was met with a lot of mixed reactions. People originally thought Nintendo made Pokemon Go, as the Pokemon franchise is exclusively on all Nintendo products and copyrighted as such. The problem for Pokemon Go, being that Niantic Studios got licensing permissions to make the game. Nintendo did not make the game. That confusion dealt a rather harmful financial blow, as many people bought into Nintendo stocks, seeing Pokemon Go‘s potential. In addressing that confusion, Nintendo confessed the truth, and stocks dropped that day. Bloomberg Technology reports,
“Nintendo Co. shares plunged by the most since 1990 after the company said late Friday that the financial benefits from the worldwide hit Pokemon Go will be limited. The stock sank 18 percent to 23,220 yen at the close in Tokyo, the maximum one-day move allowed by the exchange, wiping out 708 billion yen ($6.7 billion) in market value. After debuting in the U.S. earlier this month”.
My next question, in regard to Nintendo’s mistakes, did anyone ask– “How many endless-runner games already exist?” I highly doubt Mario is going to successfully recreate the wheel. A simple Google search yields just how ridiculous this particular genre of mobile gaming has become.
These include games with other types of endless motion, as well as endlessness in dimensions other than the horizontal.
- Jetpack Joyride. by Halfbrick Studios. …
- Temple Run 2. by Imangi Studios, LLC. …
- Subway Surfers. by Kiloo. …
- Sonic Dash. by SEGA. …
- Despicable Me: Minion Rush.
- Giant Boulder of Death. …
- Agent Dash. …
- One Epic Knight.
To crank out another old-hat of a video game, with such feigned enthusiasm seems very strange. If people are already becoming bored and inundated with such endless-anything mobile games, I just cannot see how Mario’s next adventure will be able to make a worthy impact.
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4. Poor Social Media Presence
Through monitoring Nintendo’s Social Media activities (or, another lack thereof), I’ve come to the conclusion that Nintendo’s Marketing strategies are incredibly inefficient. In terms of Social Media focus, their posts are cryptic or irrelevant to SMR. With little dedication and logic to Nintendo’s posts, I doubt their Social Media has enhanced their brand’s online experience or persona at all.
The bulk of their posts are to advertise other video games, and/or incite playful dialogue with faithful members of that Social Media channel. What’s even worse, is that the twitter trending hashtag, #SuperMarioRun vanished after the 3rd day following the Apple Keynote Seminar. Recent spikes in Nintendo’s prestige and talk of the game have surfaced every few days or so, but nothing substantial has come to light. Other than that, things have been steadily quiet. If the various Social Media channels fail to create consistency with Nintendo’s brand, and the actual entity that they so desperately need to advertise, how do they expect fruitful results? Social Media is all about live-feeds of steady information, not steady silence.
Monitoring Nintendo’s social media yields some rather childish results. While Nintendo is actually quite active with their Social Media, their overall “goal” is all over the place. They’ve done a fantastic job in engaging the audience with periphery content, yet nothing concrete.
While pop-culture references are cute and kitschy, it is not enough to truly get people involved. The fast food franchise Arby’s has a similar social media approach, yet is far more consistent and efficient than Nintendo’s. Though I’d argue that selling a cheeseburger is probably a tad easier than selling a video game.
-Social Media Breakdown-
4,031,349 — 4,031,984 Influxes of roughly 600 new likes a week.
https://www.facebook.com/Nintendo/
Analysis: This is not to say that Nintendo doesn’t use their social media well… more so that it could be improved.
Recently, Nintendo has been upping the hype for their newest console, to come out early 2017. Facebook and Twitter were their primary platforms for the trailer of the new console, the Nintendo NX. Thousands of people watched live, re-tweeted, and hash-tagged.
Nintendo was successful in the premiere, as “Mario”, and “Nintendo” were trending in the 270k-1Million ranges for five days, on both Facebook and Twitter. The release of Super Mario Run‘s trailer on Facebook was a rather remarkable success too– clocking in at nearly 8 million views.
2 – 2.2 million followers… Roughly influxes about 100k followers per month.
https://www.instagram.com/nintendo/
Analysis: Instagram seems like their least effective SM. The platform is more for sharing images, not so much video game content. Nintendo’s Instagram seems to be more of a nod to a pinterest-esque audience, rather than dedicated gamers who are interested in real communicative dialogue. While this counts as Social Media activity, It’s hardly relevant to perhaps Nintendo’s greatest gamble with Super Mario Run.
1,848,107 Subscribers –
Youtube Premier of Super Mario Run –2,557,724 views in one month. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E39ychZKnDI
– Nintendo made a secondary Youtube channel specifically for Super Mario Run — 20,126 subscribers. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCs1pApqJNPZBcPcDjEWn6MA
Analysis: What strikes me as the most interesting about Nintendo’s Youtube page, is how blatantly lacking it is! Youtube is perhaps one of the largest video-based social media platforms ever created. For Nintendo to be neglecting such an unprecedented force of digital media and communication proves my point. They have not thought this through.
While having a separate page just for Super Mario Run may seem like a nice idea, it ultimately weakens the structural integrity of Nintendo’s social media marketing strategy. Information regarding the entity that is to be sold must be centralized! If people have to go from one page, to another, to another, they’ll ultimately become disinterested, bored, or lost. To have one page that acts as a beacon, so no one gets lost along the journey of getting more information would be the most efficient way to do it.
5.16 million followers Nintendo of America
https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/
Analysis: Interesting that there is no official Super Mario Run page, like that of their Youtube channels. Nintendo’s Twitter is quite similar to their Facebook. I’ve even seen identical posts appear on multiple channels. It serves as a central hub of various information that comes out under Nintendo, as well as secondary content, like that of which is evident in Nintendo’s Instagram. (Stickers?…. Really?!)
TOTAL SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS
Something important to note here, is that once again, Nintendo is not very aware of what other gaming companies are doing. Microsoft’s Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation are wildly more successful and active through their various social media than Nintendo is.
Perhaps what makes Microsoft and Sony different than Nintendo, is that they have a much more active line of new games going out. The overall “need” for highly active social media is matched by the intensity of how many games are being released. Polls, Contests, Questionnaires, etc. are recurring events on such gaming pages. Nintendo ought to pay attention.
TWEETS- 154k Followers – 10.5 million
TWEETS – 21.9k Followers – 12.4 million
Both Microsoft and Sony have outdone Nintendo through social media. Their posts are consistent, relevant and engaging. Perhaps their strongest point in their social media, is that they’re dedicated to whichever game is coming out next, with little striation in the material. Steady posts flow though, regarding the next Battlefield game, or Gears of War 4, Skyrim HD, etc.
Nintendo, unfortunately, might be trying either too hard, or not hard enough. For the sake of Super Mario Run, it should be an easy realization to make consistent posts about the game before it comes out. Instead, Nintendo’s channels have been more focused on Pokemon Sun/Moon, and Paper Mario Color Splash. While this is an acceptable marketing strategy for those respective games, neglecting something so special as Super Mario Run seems ultimately detrimental to both SMR‘s success, as well as Nintendo’s brand image.
MEASURE OF SUCCESS
Unfortunately, we won’t know how Super Mario Run does until it’s available for an even deeper analysis. SMR comes out in early December, which begs my largest question. How will we as the audience measure the success of this game? It’s impossible for the game to be a complete failure, as just the sheer amount of fans who are dedicated to Nintendo (myself included) will most likely play the game. Is the level of success measured by how many people play it? How many people put money into it? How many people play for longer than a month? Pokémon Go was a mild success in some ways, while simultaneously a failure in others. Millions of users played, and millions of users have already stopped. I fear Super Mario Run won’t be able to out-run that fate.
Works Cited
Appadvice. “Endless Running Games: IPad/iPhone Apps AppGuide.” AppAdvice. N.p., n.d. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Blake, Boston. “Pokemon GO Has Lost Over 15 Million Daily Users.” Game Rant. N.p., 23 Aug. 2016. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Buckley, Sean. “Nintendo Loses a Little Piece of Its Identity with ‘Super Mario Run'”Engadget. N.p., 7 Sept. 2016. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Nakamura, Yuji, and Takashi Amando. “Nintendo Slumps By Most Since 1990 on Dashed Pokemon Go Hopes.” Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, 24 July 2016. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Osborn, By Alex. “Super Mario Run – Unity – IGN.” IGN. IGN, 01 Nov. 2016. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Terry, Jorge. “Apple vs Android: Just the Facts – Top Mobile Trends.” Top Mobile Trends Apple vs Android Just the Facts Comments. N.p., 01 Aug. 2016. Web. 06 Nov. 2016.
Social Media Case Studies 